As the first quarter of 2022, the international crude oil surge stimulated acrylic acid raw material propylene price trend rapid upward push, the domestic acrylic acid market quotation followed by the follow-up of raw materials and the overall chemical environment upward trend, prices gradually climbed, from the price of high hovering. By the acrylic acid manufacturers led by the offer upward push, market traders speculation and actively follow up on the promotion of the trend to supplement the downstream part of the industry under the influence of the epidemic just need to purchase in advance, the first half of the domestic regions of hazardous chemicals logistics control to increase the difficulty of cross-regional supply. Spot market in the first quarter to maintain a price-free stage, the mainstream enterprise offer and secondary market spot pushed to a high level of hovering, the overall pull up acrylic first half of the average price level. According to Goldlink data monitoring, the overall price of acrylic acid fluctuated above the level of 12,000 yuan/ton in the first half of 2022, with the highest price appearing in mid-February and the high-end price near 15,600 yuan/ton. The average price level of domestic acrylic acid market in East China rose about 44% near the same period in 2021.

Data source: Goldlink

First-half cost analysis

In terms of costs, the first half of 2022 was relatively profitable for acrylic acid producers. Especially in the first quarter, the acrylic acid market in the international crude oil and raw materials up multiple support driven by the opening of the offer rising trend, and acrylic acid enterprise price offer and the market to promote the operation of progressive promotion, raw material acrylic gradually rational fall stage acrylic acid market in the domestic epidemic and other influences continue to high level of consolidation, theoretical profit of the production enterprises rose. According to the rough calculation of acrylic acid and raw material propylene half-year average price per unit quality profit space, 2022 January-June acrylic acid unit quality within the theoretical profit space in 5813 yuan / ton, compared with the previous year with the same calculation standard profit space growth rate is obvious.

Supply pattern in the first half of the year
In addition, from the supply pattern, China’s acrylic acid production capacity fluctuations in the first half of 2022 are limited, due to the statistics of domestic producers device capacity in some enterprises belong to long-term parking, so the capacity of the first half of 2022 is modified to 3.39 million tons / year. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic in the first half of 2022 and restrictions in logistics and other domestic transportation, domestic acrylic acid supply inventory presents an overall more abundant situation. In addition, the first half of the domestic producers supply speed slowed down significantly, March-April small demand during the peak season due to the impact of the domestic epidemic presented logistics restrictions, the first half of the supply-demand conflict presented a more obvious impact.

Due to the impact of the domestic epidemic in the first half of the year, some regions are subject to obvious restrictions on the logistics of hazardous chemicals, the resumption of trade in overseas products also to a certain extent to enhance the proportion of acrylic imports. Among them, the estimated import volume from January to June is 19,400 tons, up 71.64% compared with the same period in 2021; the estimated export volume from January to June is 58,900 tons, down 1.61% compared with the same period in 2021.
Demand side in the first half of the year
From the demand side, downstream industries such as construction and coating industries in the traditional peak season demand driven by weak, in the market demand level, China’s acrylic acid downstream demand is still mainly concentrated in the field of coatings and construction industry water-reducing agent, concrete cement and other fields, the current coating industry overall start rate to maintain a low level, the consumption of acrylic acid and other raw materials show a weak and stable trend, with limited momentum. Water reducer and other concrete cement demand also showed obvious weakness in the first half of the year. For the terminal downstream real estate industry overall economic uplift is poor, the first half of 2022 demand driven by flat.

Overall, the domestic acrylic acid market in the first half of 2022 basically maintained the ups and downs of the trend of operation, the supply and demand pattern throughout the year showed a stalemate stalemate situation.
Second half-year outlook

Looking ahead to the second half of 2022, the Chinese acrylic acid market is expected to maintain a range oscillation trend, with the main driver of price push up still dominated by producers. In addition, the domestic market is likely to continue to see changes in the supply pattern as manufacturers still have plans to put new capacity into operation. It is expected that the supply-demand game in major regions will remain a key concern for the market trend.

In the second half of 2022, the Chinese acrylic acid market, supply and demand is still the main influencing factor for price fluctuations. Acrylic acid price trend in the second half of 2022 is expected to range from 9,000-12,000 yuan per ton. The annual high point may appear in September-October.

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